The Professor goes a bit nutty, again! This post is an update on an experiment on football betting on goals. It involves correct score betting and betting on total goals. The experiment is to develop a football betting system that works.
In the last two weeks the wittily named betting monkey, aka ‘The Professor’, has made some almighty blunders running the Lets Compare Bets goal betting experiment. Every cloud does have a silver lining, because from these mistakes it has taught us some hard lessons. Hard because ‘The Professor’ is using his own money. The excitement of seeing theory put into practice, making a healthy return on investment, was crumpled with some large losses. These loses did not rear their ugly heads due to fundamental problems with the correct score betting system but more to do with ‘The Professor’ being a numpty. Let’s explain.
The results so far….
Starting capital £50.
Strike rate of 87% (that’s the proportion of bets won out of the total)
Return on investment of 29%. This is the profit as a proportion of the starting betting bank.
79 winning bets
12 losing bets
What effect does boredom and drink have on running a betting system? The answer is poor decision making, getting distracted and loosing money. What can be taken from this is that ‘The Professor’ isn’t has clever as he makes out. Being just as susceptible to emotions as the next guy, mistakes where made. After watching a few games and making a series of successful bets the professor deviated from the rules. Which has been put down to boredom. Or was it amount of wine that had been consumed beforehand.
Simply The Professor forgot to follow the rules.
What are the rules of the big football correct score betting experiment?
Rule number 1. Don’t talk about the correct score betting experiment.
Rule number 2. don’t talk about…. sorry film fans, it just seemed to fit (anyone who’s seem Fight Club will understand). In fact Let’s Comapre Bets would love people to talk about this goal betting experiment in forums, blogs, and social sites. It’s only an experiment. Football goal betting tips are given out now and again for people who are joining in. To subscribe go to the top right and click the subscribe button.
Rule number 1. Is to follow the rules. Be disciplined.
Rule number 2. Forget your emotions. For any betting system to be successful emotions should be forgotten. That’s no boredom of repeating the same process over and over or sadness if a bet losses. One of the worst is regret that a bet wasn’t placed early enough and subsequently the the opportunity was lost.
Simple as that. So what did the professor get wrong?
The Professor had a foray into the correct score trading market and made a successful swing trade. The game was energised and it seemed as though multiple goals would be scored. After one goal, The Professor backed a correct score line of something like 2 – 2. Inevitably another goal was scored which meant that the chance of getting the correct score increased. As such the odds decreased or swung in a profitable direction. The position was cashed out for a nice profit.
The mistake was trying to repeat the process. The Professor forgot the rules and got distracted. The second attempt didn’t go as well, and resulted in a loss.
This loss caused annoyance, that’s right emotions, which resulted in another poor decision which gave another loss. So it’s not back to the drawing board but back to the rules. Always follow the rules.
The rules are quite simple the difficult bit with a betting system is to be disciplined, follow the rules, and never get emotional. A video of the results will be shown in another post. It’s not been recorded yet, but,it will show the betting profit and loss pages from The Professor’s Betfair account. For more goal betting posts from Let’s Compare Bets sign up to our posts (top right).
Followers of the correct score betting experiment can get the rules of this goal betting systems here.