West Ham v Everton
Tuesday 6th January 19.45
Perhaps the pick of the all Premier League ties in the third round of the FA Cup sees two faltering sides looking to recapture their form do battle, as West Ham travel up to Merseyside to take on Everton.
These two have gone through something of a rough patch recently: Everton have only won two of their last five games at home, and have only won two out of their last ten games in total.
And West Ham, despite their early season brilliance, are starting to fade ever so slightly now, with only one win in their last five away games. Both teams will be hoping to get their season back on track in this one.
Looking at the Goals stats this really should be a tight encounter. Both sides have an average goal margin of +0.1, and the average goals for and against numbers look eerily similar too:
Everton: average for 1.8, average against 1.7.
West Ham: average for 1.7, average against 1.6.
So rather than predict a specific scoreline or give you a handicap wager, we’ll instead stick to Under/Over 2.5 Goals market, for which the stats are far more illuminating:
Everton: Under 2.5 Goals = 33.3%, Over 2.5 Goals = 66.7%.
West Ham: Under 2.5 Goals = 22.2%, Over 2.5 Goals = 77.8%.
So yes, we’ll be backing Over 2.5 Goals in our acca at 4/6.
There are contrasting fortunes as far as the Corners market is concerned:
Everton: average for 5.7, average against 3.3 (margin +2.3). Average per match = 9.
West Ham: avg for 6.7, avg against 5.8 (average margin +0.9). Average per match = 12.4.
Everton: Under 10.5 = 77.8%, Over = 22.2%.
West Ham: Under 10.5 = 22.2%, Over 77.8%.
As you can see, there is a reluctance to tip either Under or Over here due to the contrast between the two teams. We’d perhaps side with Over because this is a cup tie after all, and they can be quite frantic affairs. But the statistics aren’t particularly convincing.
When you look at the stats for these two teams one theory makes itself known quite visibly: Everton tend to get kicked around a bit….and the Hammers don’t mind dishing it out themselves.
Everton: average points for 15.6, average against 28.3 (avg per match = 43.9)
West Ham: average points for 20, average against 16.1 (avg per match = 36.1)
Under/Over 35.5 Points
Everton: Under 35.5 = 22.2%, Over 35.5 = 78.8%.
West Ham: Under 35.5 = 44.4%, Over 35.5 = 55.6%.
And thus we’re more than happy to tip Over 35.5 Points here!
Neither of these two sides really boast a prolific goalscorer although there are some interesting stats that offer some tasty value. Romelu Lukaku has scored four goals at Goodison Park this season, and three of those strikes have been the first of the game. You can back the Belgian from 5/1 to repeat the trick here.
To continue the Belgian theme, we always like the look of Kevin Mirallas in the first/last goalscorer market as the diminutive winger often seems to pop up with a goal. Take the 13/2 for a slight long shot punt.
From West Ham’s perspective both Diafra Sakho and Enner Valencia (15/2 first or last) have had good campaigns. Indeed, Sakho has scored the last goal on two occasions on the Hammers’ travels, and you can get 7/1 for history to repeat itself.
And forgotten man Stewart Downing, currently enjoying a new lease of life under Big Sam Allardyce, has also netted the last goal of the game twice – and is a tidy looking 12/1 to bag again in this FA Cup encounter.