Ever wondered what the result would be for backing every football team in the Premier League for one season to see what you’d get back? A very easy strategy. English Premiership football hides various profitable trends. Trends that are closely guarded by professionals. Speadex the spread betting company have produced a punters Premier League showing how much would have been returned if every team was backed with level stakes at pre-match odds over the whole season.
Over the whole of the Premier League backing every team in every game at pre match odds would have lost money overall but reveals teams profitable teams. There where some surprises. Chelsea produced the 3rd biggest loss. Chelsea won 13 of their 26 matches, but, at very short odds. Bookmakers obviously want to penalise Chelsea fans for betting on their club. The first and second biggest losers were Wolves and Wigan. A bigger surprise is that Man City would have produced the third biggest profit. Considering the millions they have spent on players and the bottomless budget in the transfer market bookmaker odds on Man City would have produced a reasonable profit.
First and second in the punters premier league go to Blackburn and Newcastle. Newcastle should really have won the league because Alan Pardew’s side continue to exceed expectations and it is a classic recover story. The toons would have produce a 23.55% profit. Blackburn position hides a bad season with scant victories. Blackburn’s dire performance is hidden in the punter league due to a shock victory at Old Trafford on New Years Eve, because the odds where a massive 22:1. It goes to show it’s not always the obvious bets that win money.
So which teams would produce a profit with level stakes?
From biggest to lowest the league stands like this.
- Man City
- Man United
- West Brom
That’s a great list to help decide which teams to back during the 2012 / 2013 season. Let’s look at two betting strategies for the 2012/2013 season.
Use the top 11 teams from the punter league. These will form our betting universe because they suggest that bookmakers odds for these teams are too long. In other worlds the teams that will form the bed rock of the strategy. Back each team in every game starting at 10 pence to 100 pence. If the team loses add a third of the loss to the stake and carry on until the bet wins. Repeat starting with the original 100 pence stake. For instance, if the game loses 100 pence the next stake would be 133 pence, after another loss the stake would be 177 pence, and so on. This could get quite scary for teams like Blackburn would only had a handful of wins during the whole season. But the really big win against Man United covers all the loses and turns a healthy profit at odds of 22:1.
A alternative strategy is to filter the top 11 teams for the highest number of wins during the season. Next dismiss any teams where they have had a managerial change or have lost key players for the 2012 / 2013 season. Using the past as a guide to the future is not always a good guide but by dismissing teams that are likely to have a negative change in fortunes will boost returns. Repeat the process of increasing the stake by 1/3 for every loss until there is a win.
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