The Let’s Compare Bets big football correct score betting experiment on Betfair has been performing quite well recently. A previous edition of the correct score betting experiment mentioned a new technique would be tested. Rather than laying the 0-0 correct score result only, the total goals market was used as well. This post will delve into the reasoning behind the two strategies used for the correct score betting experiment. An update of the current results of the strategy will be posted later (video included). Visit the original correct score betting post to get more information about the nuts and bolts of this goal betting strategy. For all posts click on the goal betting tag or just type ‘experiment’ into the search box to the right. To get future posts about football betting subscribe to the news feed (a RSS reader is required).
[twocol_one]Time for a confession, Let’s Compare Bets aren’t really running a proper experiment. Not by some standards at least. It’s not scientific but the researcher has come to be known as ‘The Professor’. That’s right, the correct score betting professor. He’s a little bit nutty too. With constant tinkering and research into how to improve results. The aim of the football correct score betting experiment is to build the betting bank and ‘scale up’. That’s to say bigger stakes and bigger profits :).[/twocol_one] [twocol_one_last]
The correct score betting experiment is founded on a couple of basic ideas. First, that a good betting systems should be simple. Simple and easy. You could be fooled to think that you’re sitting around with a load of marketing guru’s thinking up ways of advertising a product. Although this isn’t a advertising ploy. This is an experiment and free for all to enjoy, and, it is in fact quite simple and easy. Let’s see how.
The correct score betting experiment relies on two facts. First, that premiership football is attacking in nature. Let’s face it, the clubs need to justify the massive sponsorship fees, don’t they? The styles of play associated with Premiership football produces goals and lots of them. Fact number two; although premiership football produces goals, games very rarely produce more than 6 goals.
So we know two things. Goals are very likely and but not too many of them. The correct score betting experiment relies on two strategies and uses the Betfair betting exchange.
1. laying the 0 – 0 goal result in the correct score betting market on Betfair.
2. laying the 7 or more goal result in the totals goals market on Betfair.
The original post explaining the nuts and bolts of this goal betting strategy explains how to choose high confidence games for laying the 0 – 0 goal result.
The second strategy did stress out ‘The Professor’ as first. An ill judged lay on a 5 or more goal results led to a loss that could have been prevented. However, with careful stake management and a good loss recovery system this is no bother.
Why is total goals betting on Betfair being used?
By taking a visit to football-data.co.uk The Professor got access to some free football betting stats. Goal data for the Premiership can be downloaded in Excel format. The full time home goals (FTHG) column needs to be added to the full time away goals (FTAG) column to get the total goals result for each match.
So far this season there have been 234 games played in total. Two games produced 7 or more goals. As a percentage that’s 0.85% of the total. What the professor did next was some black magic and converted the percentage into odds. The odds come out at 117 (decimal odds). Visit Betfair now to see what odds you can get for laying the 7 or more total goal result on the next premiership game (the link will open in a new window). If there are no odds offered that’s because the total goals market doesn’t tend to get active until a day or two before kick off. The calculation can be found below. Skip them if they are of no interest.
2 (7 or more goal results) divided by 234 (the total games played so far in the 10/11 season). Times by 100 to give a percentage.
2 / 234 x 100 = 0.86 rounded up.
To get decimal odds divide 100 by the percentage to get the decimal odds.
100 / 0.86% = 117.
The liability for a lay bet at odds of 117 for a £10 stake would be £1170. That doesn’t sound like a good risk reward ratio now does it? But wait…. if you’ve not already done so, take a look at the odds available on Betfair. Click on football located in the top navigation, choose a premiership game from one of the next games shown in the middle of the screen, and click view whole market. From the menu on the left scroll down until you find the total goals market. Expect them to be in the region of 25 to 70.
Is it possible to increase the confidence of total goal betting even more?
The answer is yes, be selective about the matches. Don’t bet on a game if there is a strong team playing a team weak in defense. Be wary of a team that has lost a key player at the back unless they have a strong defender to replace them. In fact the Professor hasn’t needed to do this yet, because there has been two loosing bets only. It’s an experiment after all.
A technique the Professor has been using is to place the lay bet on 7 or more goals ‘in play’. It’s a good idea to think about how the odds for the total goals market changes during a football game. As the game progresses and the longer it goes with no goals being scored the less likely it is that there will be 7 or more goal result. The odds will increase throughout the game if this happens. If there are one or two goals scored relatively quickly, however, the odds tend to drop significantly. This has given the Professor a great opportunity to place the same bet but at much better odds. Any loosing bets will have much less of an impact on the betting bank.
What the professor does is to wait for one goal to be scored then watches as the odds drop. This works best if a goal is scored during the first 20 minutes or so. Normally the odds drop and then start to increase slowly. At this point a lay bet on the 7 or more goal result is placed. Alternatively any game where there has been two goals scored during the first 30 minutes produces a good candidate for getting better odds. Remember to avoid games where one team has a large competitive advantage over another.
By using the total goal betting market on Betfair the Professor has added another ‘string to the bow’ of the Let’s Compare Bet correct score goal betting strategy. To start the experiment personally read the other posts on the subject and get a Betfair account. New account holders get a £25 free bet.