This will be a simple post. Just two videos. The first shows how the odds change in the goal betting market on Betfair during a soccer match. Unusually the chances of getting a correct score result of something like 1 – 0 increases as the game progresses. This is weird because the longer the game plays without a goal the higher the chance of a 0 – 0 outcome not a 1 – 0 out come. The video will explain more.
The second video shows an example of trading the correct score betting market on Betfair, kindly provided by ‘Betting Tips’. It serves as an example of how odds move during a football match and how a back bet can be traded of for a profit. See the second video below.
The presenter of this video is using some of the tools available using betting software called Bet Angel. The clever thing is that the software is able to predict the percentage chances of different final score lines during the game. As mentioned in the video the percentage chance of a correct score lines tends to peak at 20% in a football game. If no goals are score the percentage then drops off towards the end of the game.
How can we use this information for correct score betting on Betfair?
Armed with this knowledge you can trade a correct score bet for profit. To make a profitable trade on Betfair the trader needs to back at high odds and lay at lower odds. As the percentage probability increases the odds on Betfair decrease. In the example shown in the video the percentage chance of a 1 – 0 result starts at 12%. The graph shows that the percentage increases to around 20% then drops down later. To trade this correct score bet the trader should first place a back bet where the odds are longer (a lower percentage chance) and then place a lay bet when the probability peaks at around 20% where the odds will be much shorter. Here we have the ingredients for a profitable correct score trade on Betfair.
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