Cheltenham Festival has a habit of hitting bookmakers hard. It’s the favourites, they tend to win the Champion Hurdle. History is certainly no guide to the future. Read our horse handicapping tips to help prepare for Cheltenham Festival. If you prefer someone else do the hard work check out Smart Betting Club, who are publishing high quality tips, articles and systems for this year’s Cheltenham Festival races.
(1) The Favorite (horse with the lowest odds at post) wins one out of three races (actual percentage is 35%).
(2) The horse with second lowest odds (second favorite) wins about one out of five races (actual percentage 22%)
(3) The horse with the third lowest odds wins one out of eight races (actual percentage 12%)
(4) The three top favorites win 69% of all races.
(5) Fourth and fifth favorites account for 9% of the winners.
(6) If the favorite is odds-on, that is less than even money, the winning percentage is 70%. This percentage goes even higher on muddy tracks.
(7) Sprint races, six furloungs or less, produce a higher percentage of winning favorites, and muddy tracks show even a higher number of winning favorites.
(8) Add to the conditions in (7) the number one post position, the favorite shows even a higher number of wins.
(9) The favorite who opens at no more than 8 to 5 and never goes above 2 to 1, (providing no other horse in the race opens as low as 2 to 1) wins 45% of the time.
(10) Under the conditions stated above in (9) the second favorite has a 37% winning average.
(11) When the favorite opens up at 2 or 21/2 to 1 and never drops below 2 to 1, the third and fourth favorites together win 60% of the time.
(12) Long shots, every horse from the fourth favorite on, wins 30% of the races.
(13) Favorites show there poorest winning percentage in the last race of the day.
(14) Favorites show there best winning form in the fourth race of the day.
Get prepared for Cheltenham Festival with Smart Betting Club.
Time & Distance facts
1F= 660 ft or 120 yards
1 Length = 8ft.
A horse goes: 1 length in 1/5 sec on average.
A horse goes: 40 ft or 13.3 yds in 1 sec ( 5 lengths).