A football game provides a host of information to help with football betting. The post will show you how to use match statistics to get football bets. Using the word statistics is surely an exaggeration because you don’t really need statistics for football betting. All you need is some simple averages and percentages. That can be enough to get an edge.
Goal and possession data can be used to choose teams for match result betting, correct score betting and under/over goal bets. Corners and bookings stats can highlight handicap and under/over bets. These data
will also help highlight which players are the best for first and anytime scorer bets. Possession is normally presented as the percentage of the game that the team is in control of the ball.
To get the best football bets it’s important to match the teams. The home team advantage should never be under estimated and there is normally always a large difference in performance when playing home or away. Ensure that any stats used clearly separate home from away data.
What stats can be used to assess form?
Shot performance is a key tool for choosing which team might win and how many goals might be scored. A strong attacking team will normally have more shots. Accuracy of shots will normally be higher. More accurate shots on goal should produce more goals. It’s easy to see who the more dominant team is.
Possession is also a ‘window’ to team form. If you keep the ball more than the other team you are either likely to score more goals or concede less. This will help with match bets. If a team regularly shows strong possession figures then they are likely to make a good match bet against a weak opponents.
Recent form is also very important. Check the last 5 game results home and away. If key players are injured or are having problems off the pitch betting trends can change.
Some trends are unusual and give very good odds. An example would be a team floundering at the bottom of the league but their home record may be very good. If they will be playing a poor defensive team at home, it might reveal a great opportunity. Low possession, high goals conceded, and high corners conceded are tell tail signs of poor defensive football.
What football bets can be made from average ‘goals for’ and ‘against’ figures?
Let’s use an example.
Man City V Aston Villa
2.3 Average goals for 0.7
0.4 Average goals against 1.8
A correct score bet
In the example Man City score between 2 – 2.5 goals on average (goals for). Aston Villa concede an average of 1.8 goals per match (goal against). By combining the home team ‘goal for’ figure and ‘goal against’ figures from the away team a correct score prediction can be made. Here it would be Man City 2 – 0 Aston Villa (2.3 for v 1.8 against). Correct score bets can produce great odds. The likelihood of bagging a correct score is quite small. As such, the bookmaker needs to make odds long to attract business.
It is plain to see that Man City are far more dominant than Aston Villa when it comes to scoring goals. The goal figures also suggest the following bet; a Man City ‘to win’ match bet is in order. Looking at Aston Villa’s average ‘goals for’ figure of 0.7 and Man City’s average ‘goal against’ of 0.3 it’s fair to assume that Villa probably ain’t going to get any goals. A ‘team not to score’ bet may be the best choice.
Under / Over goal betting
Goal data doesn’t always compare as well as that shown in the example above. Often it is easier to high light good over / under goal bets rather than match bets. Again using the average goals for and against figures is the key to selecting a goal over / under bet. A percentage of the number of games for each team has resulted in a under or over result is also handy to have. If you get a team who produce more than 2 goal 76% of the time against a team doing the same 84% of the time a over 2.5 goal bet might be worth a look.
Remember the home team normally directs the game, unless they play a much more dominant team. So, what football numbers can show us a good goal betting opportunity. Look for a home team with high average ‘goal for’ figures. If they’re matched against a team with similar goal figures, the match has the ingredients of a profitable goal bet.
What other goal bets are worth considering?
It’s not just under over goal betting that can give good results. Clean sheet bets, where you expect one team to score no goals, would suit two teams with strong ‘under 2.5 goal’ data. This would include low ‘goals for’ and ‘against’, low corners conceded and high possession figures. More over, ‘first goal after 27 minutes’ and correct score betting; 0-0, 1-0, or 0-1 could be worth a punt.
For using this information for making football bets Betfair is a good place to start. It’s more of a community than a bookmaker. With lively forums and odds that offer get bigger wins more of the time. Look below for an illustration of how Betfair compared to some traditional bookmakers for football match odds and correct score bets.