In previous articles we have looked at the popular Over2.5 Goals market. This has become one of the most popular markets because of the ease with which the average punter can research the statistics. In contrast, the Under 2.5 Goals market is far less popular and often gets overlooked.
There are a couple of good reasons for this; firstly, football is all about goals and punters are naturally drawn to the markets where a high goal count is expected. Secondly, under 2.5 goal tallies are generally less common and therefore get far less attention from the tipsters.
The good news is that bookmakers focus their attention on the same markets as the punters, so by exploring the less popular markets, you can sometime find much better value.
Under 2.5 goals – which teams are hot right now?
To find out first candidate in the Under 2.5 Goals market, we will take a look at the Spanish second division. If we look at the statistics for this market, we discover that SD Huesca are a prime contender for an Under 2.5 Goals bet.
Here are a few reasons why:
- SD Huesca’s last nine games at home and away have finished with Under 2.5 Goals
- 12 out of the 14 games Huesca have played this season have paid out in this category
- They have 100% strike rate in this market away from home
- At home, 71.4% of their games have ended with fewer than 2.5 goals
In the same division, Real Zaragoza also score highly in this market with 85.7% of their home and away matches producing the required goal count including their last six league games in a row. Just one of their home games and one of their away games have not paid out this season.
To find the best team in all of the major leagues right now, we need to divert our attention to Ligue 1 in France. The club in question is Lille OSC who currently have a combined strike rate in the market of 92.9%. That total is made up of an 85.7% success ratio at home and a 100% success ratio away from home. Of the 14 games they have played this season, only one has failed to pay out in this category.
For Lille’s next home game, Bet365 will give you a price if 1/2 for a total of Under 2.5 Goals. That’s an implied probability of 66.67%. Our stats tell us that the result has a historical strike rate of 85.7%. So in this case, the bet is tilted in our favour.
There are plenty of other teams that score well in this category but sometimes you may have to look at little harder to spot them. For example, two of the top five teams in this market play in the Spanish second division and another two play in the Italian second tier.
For great odds in the total goals market, make sure you have an account with Betfair.