During 2015 we have made various tips and predictions on our Facebook page. For fun. We performed quite well. For the tips we made you can visit the our Facebook timeline and scroll or search through to get the details. You may think that’s great but how can we profit from these sorts of opinions? Betfair is a great tool to allow normal punters to play bookmaker. This post will explain some techniques for setting up a simple sports book without needing hundreds of thousands of pounds (or currency equivalent).
Barclays Premiership football has seen some big changes in the 2015/16 season including Manchester United and Chelsea not living up to the their fans expectations. A big shock for Chelsea was that Jose Mourinho ended his job at the club but the bigger shock has been their bad performances.
Earlier in the season we predicted that Leicester City was a team to watch. Our tips included both teams to score and win tips. Other things we predicted for the season was that Chelsea was priced as the favourite to win the Premier League at the start of the season. In our opinion the odds did not reflect their true chance of success especially considering the pedigree of Manchester City and an Arsenal who looked like they where turning a corner.
Making a sports book is basically setting out your opinion about which teams are priced at the correct odds and more importantly which teams are not. For instance we predicted Chelsea’s odds would increase and that Arsenal’s odds would Shorten. Who would have known that Leicester City’s odds would shorten so much. Considering Leicester’s form and gaining Claudio Ranieri as manger was a good indication that things where going to change for the club.
Real bookmakers provide odds on many different markets and sports. As a novice booked we just need to pick one market, for instance, the Barclays Premier League outright winner antepost market on Betfair. Next we choose which teams look like they’re due a change of opinion compared to the odds given by the bookmakers at the start of the season. Bookmakers employ intelligent people called odds compilers to maker their sports book and predict the probability of each team winning the league. They then add in their profit margins. There are so many factors that effect the rise and fall in the fortunes of Premier League teams that the odds of each team will eventually move during the season either as they become more likely or less likely to win. Certain things can really shake things up, for instance, Chelsea loosing it’s manager or Leicester city gaining an experienced manager. Alternatively it could be a key player being injured or a key signing. Either way these events cause a shift in the odds of the other contenders for the top spot.
Odds compilers are clever but they can not see the future, which allows punters on Betfair to have a bit of fun and potentially do nicely at making a bit of extra cash for themselves.
How to make your Barlcays Premiership sports book?
Short list the teams you want to focus on. Look at the positive and negative points that you think will effect their eventual position in the League. For instance we had a shortlist of Chelsea, Arsenal and Leicester City. Decide if you think the odds priced on Betfair are too short or too long. If they are too short place a lay bet and if they are too long place a back bet.
Place wagers on your selection as early on in the season as possible when you have sufficient information. No sit back and watch what happens. Betfair account holders are able to see the value of their bets in real time, which will either be positive or negative. At intervals during the season add up all the values; is the sports book in profit, or not? Reevaluate each selection and see if you want to let it run. Betfair allows you to ‘cash out’ each bet at any time for a profit of loss. Instead of letting the season finish with all your bets open you will want to cash out all the selections, except any dead certs you want to keep in.
That’s a simple and effective way to play bookmaker on Betfair. Any people new to Betfair may want to check out the Betfair questions answered page.
For other cool techniques to use on Betfair sign up to receive our ebook in the form on the right or just download it from the shop.
Whatever you do you will need a Betfair account which is the best service provider for doing this by far. Visit Betfair.