Starting with results so far. The first bet was Netherlands to beat Japan to nil. The Dutch national team has statistics that indicate their skill at defending. The Netherlands have an average of 0.2 goals scored against them and concede an average of under 10 corners in 80% of their games. If the team can’t win corners then they are unlikely to score goals. The Dutch are far superior to Japan in this area. Betfair offered odds of over 2 which enabled us to more than double the stake.
Betfair allow us to place lay bets. You might have noticed that the bet at the top of the picture above is a lay bet. The lay bet placed was for a 0 – 0 score line not to happen at half time between Brazil and Ivory Coast. Knowing how good Brazil are at attacking and how lacking Ivory Coast are in defense this seemed like a good bet. At odds over 2 on Betfair the liability (the amount I would have had to pay out if the score was 0-0) was only just over what I wanted to win.
But, what now?
Slovenia are top of Group C going in to this game, with 4 points. England and USA are equal on 2 points. Algeria have 1 point. England must win whereas a draw would be enough for Slovenia to qualify.
Scarily England have drawn two games, 1-1 with USA and 0 – 0 with Algeria. Considering England’s goal totals during qualification this has been a surprise. However, something England have been very good at has been winning corners. So far corner handicap bets have paid out consistently. Lets compare some past results.
Against the USA England won 4 more corners than the Americans.
Against Algeria England won 6 more corners than their opponents.
England won the Most Corners in 8 out of 10 games in qualifying, and that trend has continued so far at the World Cup. Slovenia have been out-cornered in both games so far, and in this one, England are the
team that need to go for the win.