Let’s Compare Bets has been running a correct score betting experiment to see how how much money it is possible to make betting in the correct score goal betting market on Betfair. Here’s an interesting statistic. During the 2005 and 2006 season there were only 32 games that produced a 0 – 0 goal line out of a total of 380 games played. That’s 8.4% of games. The correct score betting system being tested uses freely available betting stats to get high probability correct score bets. Follow the previous link to get more information about the Let’s Compare Bets correct score betting system.
Readers who are not familiar with Betfair should take a look at the Betfair FAQs before reading more about the correct score betting system. Simply put, the correct score betting system involves laying correct score bets on Betfair.
Before the correct score betting tips are revealed later in this post, first, lets discuss a post over at the Betting School blog. Betting school are also running a correct score goal betting system which involves making bets on 0 – 0, 3 – 0 and 0 – 3 goal lines. What they know at Betting School is that only 37 games during the 05/06 season resulted in one team scoring more than 3 goals. There system involves ‘trading off’ one correct score bet against another to generate risk free bets.
How can this help the Let’s Compare Bets correct score betting system?
There is no cast iron rule that says ‘only bet on 0 – 0 scorelines’. It’s all about using the stats that are available to make lay bets on correct scores that are not very likely for that game. Also something equally important is that the odds on offer are good. As a rule of thumb you would not want to risk more than one quarter of your betting bank on any correct score bet that isn’t a 0 – 0 score line. When the experiment was started we risked 100% of the betting bank but the bets where high confidence.
A correct score line that could be worth using is 0 – 3. That’s the home team scoring nothing and the visiting team romping home with 3 goals. It’s very unusual for a home team to concede more than two goals. It’s even less likely if you choose the best teams, which is easily done using head to head game stats for both sides.
During 05/06 only 1.8% of all games produced 0 – 3 goals. That figure is an average. Using game stats it’s possible to find teams that have a above average chance of not getting a 0 – 3 score line. Do this by finding teams who’s games normally produce less than ‘2.5 goals’. This is bookmaker wordage for 2 goals or less. When these teams play each it produces a high confidence correct score betting opportunity. Don’t forget to compare home game stats if the team is playing at home and vice versa if playing away. The home team advantage is a powerful thing and shouldn’t be ignored.
Manchester United v Sunderland – lay the 0 – 0 score line. 66.7% of Man U’s home games get 3 or more goals. They score and average of nearly 3 goals per game. Sunderland have score an average of just over 1 goal per game and their recent form is good.
Bolton v West Brom – lay the 0 – 0 score line because 7 out of 9 of Bolton’s home games produce 3 or more goals and 7/9 of West Brom’s away games get 3 or more goals.
Blackpool v Liverpool – lay the 0 – 0 score line. 100% of Backpool’s home games have produced more than 2.5 goals and Liverpool have been conceding an average of 1.8 goals playing away.
There’s a few selections to get started with correct score betting. Betfair offer a free bet which makes it easy to get started. If you need to know more about Betfair visit the site and use some of the excellent guides available.
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