As the Premiership gets started the same old suspects continue to exhibit profitable betting trends. Consistent performers are Man United, Manchester City, Chelsea, and the likes of Aston Villa and many more. 2012 / 2013 has started with surprising results from Swansea who gave QPR a 5 – 0 drubbing. It is ironic that Tottenham Hotspur should suffer their first defeat of the season against Newcastle just after Swansea Midfielder Gylfi Sigurdsson moved to the club. It was Swansea’s new replacement for Sigurdsson who helped them beat QPR 5 – 0. QPR do have a terrible away record. On to the idea for this post. It’s time to start a new betting challenge. We’ve done goal betting challenges before, which where relatively successful but we got let down when our guinea pig ‘the professor’ got distracted and made some poor decisions..
Now it’s time to start afresh and ‘the professor’ is raring to go. It’s going to be a monster challenge this Premiership season. The best football bets come from using stats of last years performances and more importantly recent form.
Goal betting challenge
Goal predictions is the name of the game. Using past results from last season and current form we will make score predictions. These bets can be notoriously difficult to land. When they win the odds are big but probably not big enough to make it a real winner. Drawing on the experience from our last goal betting challenge ‘the professor’ has decided to add a twist to making correct score line bets. Here’ s how.
Let’s say we have a prediction of Man City 2 Tottenham 1 playing at home. As reasonable as it sounds chances are the game will not go exactly as expected and will not end as 2 – 1. A little knowledge of how odds change during a football game can go a long way here. Odds for a 2 – 1 result will be relatively long at the begging of the game. When a either team scores the likelihood of a 2 -1 result will increase because the game is one goal closer to the result we want. The odds will reduce producing a risk free profit opportunity.
An obvious risk with this strategy is that if neither team score any goals it’s going to loose money (because the odds for goal predictions on anything above 0 – 0 will increase – eventually). Careful selection of which matches to use will be a key factor to this challenge. High confidence matches only. This one’s just an experiment so watch to see how it goes.
Over / Under goal predictions
Access to average goals for and conceded for each team in the Premiership last season and current form, which builds game per game, will allow us to make some good Over / Under predictions.
Take Man United who are so good at defending: under goal results happen quite often. Recent changes to the strike force, viz, Robin Van Persie, may result in lower goal totals initially. Betfair has a range of under goal predictions available. Under 2.5 goal and 3.5 goal bets will be our focus.
Corner betting Challenge
We’ll also be making some corner predictions as well. Of particular interest is Liverpool. They won 2 more corners than their opponents 100% of the time last season and, we want to see if they will continue this season. As recent form builds predictions will be easier to make.
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As the Premiership progresses predictions will follow. We’ll monitor our performance throughout the season. Read this post for profitable football betting stats for the previous Premiership season.
Read this page to learn methods of goal betting on Befair.
Read this page to learn how to trade odds on Betfair which is a technique we are suggesting for the correct score strategy mentioned earlier.