Live on Sky Sports 1
Sunday 2 November, 12:30:
Manchester City v Manchester United – Etihad Stadium
The highlight of this weekend’s Premier League fixture list is Sunday’s clash between the Manchester sides at the Etihad Stadium.
Louis van Gaal’s team celebrated their late equaliser against Chelsea last week like a victory and they would surely be happy with a similar score line away to the reigning league champions. However, this is a derby game and no one will be talking about sharing the points.
While the draw against Chelsea will have given United a boost, Manuel Pellegrini’s team are coming into this match on the back of a disappointing Champions League draw in Moscow, a 2-1 defeat at West Ham and a Capital One Cup loss to Newcastle. The positive news for City is that they have now won three straight derbies against their rivals and will start as favourites to make it number four.
It looks certain that David Silva will miss the match after a scan on his knee revealed ligament damage. The injury was incurred during the mid-week game against Newcastle.
United are still unsure whether Wayne Rooney and Radamel Falcao will be fit in time for the Sunday’s game and are remaining tight-lipped about their progress.
From a betting point of view, this game looks like a contender in the over 2.5 goals market at first glance: City’s home games have an average of 3 goals per match and United’s away games average 3.5. The percentages tell a slightly different story however, with only 50% of each team’s respective games producing the result.
The same percentages also apply to the over 3.5 goals market. This shows us that there have been some high scoring games amongst the results and at this stage of the season the sample size is still quite small.
If we look at home and away games for both teams combined, City have an over 2.5 goal ratio of 56% with United coming in slightly higher at 67%. If we look at head to head games between the teams, five out of the last six encounters have resulted in over 2.5 goals.
Both teams to score
So far this season, both teams have scored in 75% of Man City’s home games and 75% of Man United away games. The combined figure of 150% should make this bet irresistible to regular Goals Galore punters.
Manchester City home games would normally be sure fire bet in the over 10.5 corner market with an average of 12.8 per game. However, this figure could be cancelled out by United’s very low away average of 8.5 corners pr game. The Red Devils have restricted their opposition to an average of just 2.3 corners per away game this season. The corner market should probably be avoided for this reason.
United have yet to win away this season and it is hard to see them reversing that trend in this game. City are experiencing a minor crisis but they were impressive in their last home league game when they demolished Tottenham 4-1. Derbies are always difficult to call and much will depend on whether Wayne Rooney is fit; the United captain in the all-time leading scorer in Manchester derbies.
This one will be close and there should be a few goals but City should just have the edge.
Recommended bets: Over 2.5 goals, Both Teams to Score
Result: Manchester City 2-1 Manchester United