As we enter week 8 of the Premier League season, the sample size for data increases and we start to see some clear patterns emerging.
If we apply the statistics for corners (won and conceded) and goals scored (for and against) to this weekend’s games, we may find some opportunities worth backing.
If you are a fan of the corner betting markets, there a couple of games that stand out. First up is the Manchester City vs Tottenham Hotspur match. Here, the stats tell us that the home side win an average of 10.3 corners per game at the Etihad and the away side win an average of 5 corners on the road. Therefore, this game has a very high chance of producing over 10.5 corners. The Sky Blues concede an average of 4.3 corners at home, so a corner count of over 14 is very likely.
Another game with a chance of a high corner count is Arsenal vs Hull City. The Londoners win an average of 8 corners at home while the Tigers win an average of 6 corners per away game. Both teams are good at restricting the number of opposition corners but this game should still break the 10.5 corner count.
There are also a couple of games that may be lacking when it comes to corners. Southampton will take on Sunderland at St. Marys and both teams have struggled when it comes to corners so far this season. The Saints win an average of just 4 corners per home game while Sunderland only manage to notch up a tally of 3.3 on their travels. This game has a very high possibility of a producing fewer than 10.5 corners with the final figure likely to be below 9.
Stoke vs Swansea also stands out as a low corner game with the home side averaging 5.7 per game and the away team averaging a pitiful total of just 1.7. Stoke have conceded quite a few corners at home but Swansea are the worst in the league by a distance when it comes to winning corners. Expect a corner count of below 10 in this game.
The goal betting statistics are also starting to reveal some trends and there a couple of games worth looking at this weekend.
Arsenal vs Hull is once again in the spotlight as we look at the over 2.5 goals market. Home games involving the Gunners have averaged 3 goals per match and Hull’s away games have produced an average of 2.7. Arsenal score an average of 1.7 at home and Hull have managed to net an average of 1.3 pr away game. This game has a good chance of producing over 2.5 goals.
Aston Villa will travel to Goodison Park to face Everton on Saturday with Paul Lambert’s men hoping that the Toffees continue their generous habit of shipping goals at home. Visitors to the blue half of Merseyside have scored an average of 3.7 goals per game this season and Everton themselves have averaged 2.3 per home match – making a total average of 6 per game. Even if Villa only manage to score their current away average of 0.7, this game still has a decent chance of producing over 2.5 goals.
The third standout game in the over 2.5 market is West Bromwich Albion against Manchester United. On average, the Baggies have netted twice per home game this term while United have a decent return of 1.3 per away game. With an average total goal count of 3.3 for both teams in their respective home and away games, a goal count of over 2.5 looks like a decent bet.
If you are looking for a game that will have a low goal count, look no further than Stoke vs Swansea. The Potters have recorded an average of just 0.3 goals per game at home this season compared to Swansea’s 1.3 on the road. Stoke are pretty tight at conceding at home too (an average of 0.7), so this one should be considered for under 2.5 goal bets.