The Let’s Compare Bets correct score betting experiment has been running since November 20th 2010. It’s time to review our selections and see how the goal betting system on correct scores has performed. The results have been quite good. There have been some loses and silly mistakes, but that hasn’t stopped a return on investment of 54%. Actions where taken to reduce the potential losses in one occasion. The mistakes have helped us improve the system by using a better staking plan and trading out loosing bets ‘in play’. The results can be seen by watching the ‘amateur recording’ of the profit and loss from the Betfair account used.goal betting on Betfair

A quick recap. This goal betting strategy uses the Betfair betting exchange. It’s vital because on the betting exchange it is possible to make lay bets. That’s to say, bet that something won’t happen. This strategy relies on betting that a 0 – 0 scoreline won’t happen. Or in other words that there will be at least one goal scored during the game. Not much to ask. Read the original correct score betting post to catch up on what the experiment is all about.

How has the correct score betting system performed?

There where 17 winning bets and 3 loosing bets. Explanation about the loosing bets to follow. Here are the important stats. The results of the correct score betting experiment have been taken from the profit and loss view in the ‘current bets’ section on Betfair. Using the profit and loss section gives a fairer view of performance because all profit is minus Betfair commission of 5%.

Starting capital £50.
Strike rate of 85% (that’s the proportion of bets won out of the total)
Return on investment of 54%. This is the profit as a proportion of the starting betting bank.
17 winning bets
3 losing bets

Here’s a video clip of the profit and loss summary from the correct score betting experiment Betfair account.

What about the loosing bets?

Loosing bet 1, 27th December. The Let’s Compare Bets goal betting tester decided to test the Total Goal market as an alternative to laying correct score results. It’s possible to back or lay 1 or more, 2 or more, 3 or more goals, and so on. The higher the number of goals the longer the odds. The loosing bet was a 4 or more goals bet. Not a clever idea when Chelsea and Arsenal are concerned. The Toal Goals market did prove more profitable when used for Tottenham v Charlton on the 9th January 2011.

What did our testers learn from the Total Goal market? Not to lay the 4 or more goals option. A better option is to lay the 5 or more goals option. On the whole football matches hardly ever produce 5 goals or more. That’s what was done in the Tottenham Charlton game. The bet was entered ‘in play’ making it possible to make the bet whilst the games was being played.

Why is ‘in play’ betting so useful? Let’s use the Tottenham v Charlton game as an example. Each time a goal is score the chance of getting a 5 or more goal result increases. After the second goal the odds available on the 5 or more result shortened considerably, which reduced the liability of a bet significantly. So a bet was placed and it won.

Note. The correct score betting experiment will now lay the 5 or more goal result more often to see if it proves a good alternative to manila correct score goal betting.

Losing bet number 2, 5th January 2011. The Let’s Compare Bets correct score betting tester suffered from a bout of nerves whilst watching the Aston Villa V Sunderland in play market. No goals had been scored after about 30 minutes. To avoid the potential loses of a 0 – 0 goal line happening a back bet was placed on the draw. This was a mistake because it is quite normal for no goals to be scored in the first 30 minutes.

Note. The Let’s Compare Bets goal betting tester is learning to control all emotions when watching goal betting markets on Betfair ‘in play’. This is actually very important because this is an experiment with the sole purpose to make some money. It’s business, not pleasure.

Losing bet number 3. Arsenal v Man City. No goals, ouch. A potential liability of about £19. Luckily the stats backing up this game where a bit shaky so it got monitored ‘in play’. After not having goals in the first half, the tester watched the odds carefully. After the first 10 minutes of the second half a saver bet was placed to reduce the potential loss.

To do this an offset bet needs to be placed on the ‘back side’ of the market. The odds where very short because a 0 – 0 result was much more likely at that point, so a back bet with a large stake was placed to ensure the loss was reduced. This may require that more money be added to the betting bank if there are not sufficient funds. Adding money via various sources is instantaneous so this shouldn’t be a problem.

Note. The goal betting experiment will now only trade out of bets ‘in play’ using an offset bet if no goals are scored during the first 65 minutes (20 mins into the second half).

How
will the correct score betting experiment evolve?

Next it’s time to mention the staking strategy. So far a level staking strategy has been used. £2 per bet no matter how much the betting bank increases. Lay bets on a 0 – 0 correct score result tend to have quite long odds which produce quite a large liability. That’s one of the main reasons a £2 stake has been used.

This goal betting system can not use a conventional staking strategy because it relies on placing lay bets. A normal staking plan for a betting system involves risking a small proportion of the betting bank, perhaps 4%. Making lay bets means acting a bit like a bookmaker. The liability of the lay bets on correct score results can actually take up quite a large proportion of the betting bank. Goal betting systems like this rely on making a number of high confidence bets to win small amount of money compared to the liability. By carefully selecting which games to use the number of loosing bets can be reduced significantly. This prevents the betting bank getting eaten up by a series of loosing bets.

At the start stake sizes should equal about 2% of the betting bank and should be increased inline with the betting bank.

Obviously the intention is to get a series of high confidence winning bets. But there will always be loosing bets. Loses can be recovered by using a good recovery system. The system used here takes the amount of the loss and divides it by 4 or 5. This figure is used as the new staking amount. Remember to use a stake of 2% of the betting bank otherwise the amounts needed to stake on the recovery system can start rising very quickly.

Betfair are offering new customers a £25 free bet which is a great way to start the correct score betting strategy.

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