Mathematician Betting TipsRecently we mentioned that the Cheltenham Horse Festival is great for using tipsters. Statistical research and using historical information enables tipsters to make some good selections.

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Members have just collected a 18/1 winner.   Guy Ward the tipster at Mathematician Betting carried out a great deal of research for the first day of Cheltenham.  Members received a full breakdown of the clues that led to this winner.

To keep it brief there is a excerpt from the bet alert sent by Mathematician Betting for the first day of Cheltenham.  Guy produced a short list using his research and advised of which bets to make.

S h o r t l i s t
* PENTIFFIC is out of the handicap but I ignore that
* It seems irrelevant as most of his forms Australian
* Statistically He lacks the backclass of past winners.
* Ignore that as he has won big races abroad
* Dont worry that he fell last time out
* There are precedents with last time fallers
* He ran very well just 10 days ago when falling
* In the Grimthorpe Chase he had them all in trouble
* That was a high class race and a drop in trip will suit
* I remember the Kim Muir winner in 1998 (In Truth)
* He won from the Grimthorpe where he pulled up
* I noticed him in Febuary and Tipped him at Ayr
* He Flopped that day but hated the soft ground
* These were my comments that day

“I like PENTIFFIC. He was a very smart horse in Australia
winning big races. He then got suffered a Tendon injury in
Japan. He came to England to recover and he had stem cell
treatment. He spent several months on the sidelines when
with Venetia Williams and has now resumed his career. ”
* PENTIFFIC has to be considered here off bottomweight
* TULLAMORE DEW is an exposed 10 year old
* He fails a couple of smaller trends but only just
* Nothing worries me much about his profile
* I love the fact he has placed at the last 2 Festivals
* TULLAMORE DEW looks a very solid runner to me

* ALFIE SHERRIN is very interesting
* Go back to the 2010 Cheltenham Festival
* He was a huge gamble starting 11/4 for the Pertemps
* He was Paul Nicholls trained then moved to Jonjo
* Had his quirks – been hard to train – but has some positives
* ALFIE SHERRIN is rated 147 over hurdles
* Today over fences he is rated 129
* The first thing we know is he is very well treated
* The next thing we know are his connections
* Jp McManus and Jonjo O’Neill
* We know we can put a line through several runs
* There is every chance he has been saved for this race
* I opposed him in the Midlands Grand National
* He was too inexperienced and after than he was unreadable
* Switched between Hurdles and Chases and different distances
* I think he is being conditioned to win a good race
* His jumping may not be as safe as I’d like
* Not sure how robust or reliable he is
* I watched both his last two races though
* Both left me certain he was given quiet rides
* JPMcManus paid #110k for this horse. He wasnt cheap.
* He should be much happier on this ground
* Not keen he comes from hurdles or out or the handicap
* I do think the good outweighs the bad at 20/1 +
* Tony McCoy can’t do 10st which is why he doesnt ride
* I see him very much as the Stables Number 1 option
* He could easily fall or go missing without trace
* Equally he is thrown in and this could be his day
* ALFIE SHERRIN has to be in the staking plan
Selection

Split Stake Bet

ALFIE SHERRIN 18/1 Win Bet

PENTIFFIC 25/1 Win Bet

TULLAMORE DEW – Saver Bet 12/1
( saver is a small bet to reclaim stakes and break even if it wins)

Not a bad start.  Aflie Sherrin won at 14/1 starting price having come in a touch since this morning when advised. Betfair SP was just over 18/1 .  These selections could also be good for trading on Betfair bearing in mind how the odds shorten on this selection.  Get the rest of Guy’s advise here (opens a new window).  We recommend Betfair for Guy’s bets because they have unbeatable odds and enable punters to trade out non performing bets before or during the race.  Check out the Betfair bonus.

 

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