Join the correct score betting experiment where we will use a system to place a series of correct score goal bets on football / soccer. Let Compare Bets have discussed correct score betting in the past in ‘correct score betting a long shot to goal betting profits‘.
Some correct score betting techniques can be quite technical, as you might notice if you read the post linked above. The title says it all ‘ a long shot to goal betting profits’. If you’re not a Nobel Price winning mathematician the methods described won’t be much use. The reader, like us may want to find some middle ground between taking a wild guess at goal betting and turning into a professor of goal betting. Well that’s what this post aims to do.
[box type=”download” style=”rounded” border=”full”]A complete guide to football betting on the 2011/12 Premeirship season. Download this guide free courtesy of Smart Betting Club. There is something for everyone. Including some great tips using research carried out on home / away team results, which is as good as the tips in this post. It will open in the browser window (otherwise right click and select save as, then open once saved).[/box]
Get more information about the experiment.
Some of the disadvantages of correct score goal betting include, large margins for the bookmakers and volatile nature of results. This is our correct score betting experiment. Let’s Compare Bets will be trailing a correct score technique that we will describe here, “don’t worry there won’t be any affiliate links to spammy betting blueprints”. It’s just for fun!
The plan will use Betfair the betting exchange. Betfair normally has better odds than other bookmakers LINK. This helps to remove the problem with large margins. What’s more Betfair enables users to choose preferred odds helping the cause even further.
The Betfair correct score betting experiment shares something in common with other goal betting techniques. Selections are carefully researched using football betting data. Using football betting stats has been discussed here.
Where can you get access to correct score betting stats?
For up to date injury news the Betinf website is very good. Select the country who’s leagues are preferable for goal betting from menu on the left. Then click injuries from the menu on the top right.
After ruling out teams with key players injured next it is necessary to look at head to head statistics for teams who are playing each other. For fee football betting stats H2H Stats has a easy to use user interface. Just choose the date from the calender on the left and scroll through the games. Choose a match up that looks good and click on the ‘display head to head page’ on the right hand side.
Something not held in common with other correct score betting techniques is that this system does not involve backing selections. It doesn’t use complicated statistical models to choose which score lines to back. Rather than aiming to get a big winning bet every now and again at high odds, it is designed to get lots of winning bets at low odds.
It is a correct score lay betting system using Betfair. A betting exchange like Betfair allows users to lay selections. That means bet that something won’t happen (visit the Betfair FAQ if this needs explaining). Here are the steps to the correct score betting experiment.
Step 1. Choose games where there is a high chance that goals will be scored. Look at the football teams head to head betting stats. Look at the teams attacking play. How many goals do they score and corners do they win home and away? Study the teams defensive qualities. How many goals do they let in, and how many corners do they concede home and away? English Premiership football tends to be very attacking in nature. The fast pace tends to open up more goal scoring opportunities. The premiership may be a good place to start, however, the Champions League will be nearly as good.
Here is an example of two teams that would be a good match up.
TEAM A (home) – 2 or more goals scored on average. 6 or more corners won. Vs TEAM B 2 or more goals conceded and 6 or more corners lost.
Step 2. Lay the 0 – 0 result. A Betfair account is essential for this because you can’t really do it anywhere else. Users effectively act as a bookmaker. You state how much money you want to win. The systems calculate what the liability will be using the odds available in the market at the time. Lay odds on a 0 – 0 correct score result will be quite large. To help increase profits Betfair allows users the option to choose more preferable odds. Just hit the down arrow next to the odds box to reduce the odds (reducing the liability). Your bet will remain unmatched until the odds on the exchange move closer to your preferred odds. Other Betfair members need to be willing to except your lay odds. Odds that are massively different from the average odds in the exchange at the time may never get matched (in which case the stake is returned).
Step 3. Tweak selections and always try to get better odds (even if it’s a little) to ensure that profits from winning bets far outweigh the loses from occasional losing ones.
Step 4 (optional). Record the average odds on all correct score lay bets. Work out how much is returned per pound staked. Then work out how many winning bets there are to loosing bets on average. That way it’s possible to see how many lay bets are needed to stay in profit. Every time an aspect of the correct score system is changed, for example, selection methods or adjusting the odds, record the effect it has on the return per pound. By analyising the results it’s possible to fine tune and increase performance. Sounds great, check back to see how things go. A special Betair correct score betting account has been opened to record results.
That’s it. Simple. Feel free to subscribe to our posts via email or RSS (which an RSS reader is required for) to get updates of the Betfair correct score betting experiment. It’s easy to get your friends involved by clicking the Facebook like it button below. Or simply use the search box up to the right hand side to search for ‘betting experiment’ to see how the experiment evolves.
Betfair are offering new customers a free bet which can get you started with correct score betting.