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How do odds move in a football match… goal betting trading on Betfair

This will be a simple post. Just two videos. The first shows how the odds change in the goal betting market on Betfair during a soccer match. Unusually the chances of getting a correct score result of something like 1 – 0 increases as the game progresses. This is weird because the longer the game plays without a goal the higher the chance of a 0 – 0 outcome not a 1 – 0 out come. The video will explain more.

The second video show an example of trading the correct score betting market on Betfair, kindly provided by ‘Betting Tips’. It serves as an example of how odds move during a football match and how a back bet can be traded of for a profit. See the second video below.

The presenter is using Bet Trader for making the trades.

It’s started, the football World Cup betting trends to cash in on

World Cup betting

The Football World Cup has started. A massive occasion, with unbelievable amounts of money being won and lost. It’s almost a sin not taking part. So, for World Cup betting go no further than Lets Compare Bets. This post will be part of a series aiming to compare World Cup bets. The profitable trends and statistics
for World Cup betting will be uncovered.

If you didn’t know it is possible to bet on booking points during a football game. Betting on booking points is great for World Cup betting because it doesn’t matter if the team wins or loses. It is all down to the character of the team. Their aggressiveness and passion.

There are various things that can make a good bet turn bad. Robert Green making a school boy error is a good example. Credit to anyone who made a Gerrard first goal scorer bet for England’s first game of the tournament against the USA.

However, teams don’t often change the way they approach a game. Regardless of form if the team play aggressively they will play aggressively no matter how well they play on the day. If they are having a howler they’ll be more aggressive. This makes betting on booking points relatively free of nasty surprises.

If you know about betting on booking points skip this part and jump straight to the World Cup betting trends below.

Generally bookmakers apply a similar points system to bookings

* Yellow Card = 10 points
* Red Card = 25 points
* An automatic red is given for two yellow cards resulting in 35 points

Betting on bookings is a simple over under market,

Under 35 points, over 35 points or exactly 35 points. This is the same are 3.5 cards. Actually bookmakers usually set the market somewhere between 3.5 and 5.5 cards.

Let’s see how this can be applied to betting at the World Cup.

Betting on World Cup booking points

A 25/1 goal bet, tips for World Cup spread betting…

World Cup betting

The football World Cup is expected to suck in over one billion pounds and that’s just in the betting markets.  That is a lot.  With bookmakers fighting each other to attract the most money at the World Cup there are some interesting goal betting markets that have appeared.  This post takes a quick look at some of the antepost World Cup goal bets available.

Sporting index offer spread betting on the World Cup. Some of the spread bets offered include the ’stop at a’ markets.  You are invited to bet on how many World Cup matches will be played before;

a 0-0 draw
a score draw (0-0, 1-1, 2-2)
a player to score a hat-trick

In the 2006 World Cup the first 0-0 draw was the 4th game.  If sporting index are offering a spread of 9.5 – 10.5, they are predicting that the first draw will be in the 9th, 10th, or 11th game. If the first 0-0 draw is after 4 games as with the 2006 World Cup would return 5.5 times your stake (£10 x difference between Sell Price/ 9.5 and Result/4 = £55).  Although this is not a bet we would recommend because the risk is too much for the reward.  Imagine if there where no 0-0 draws, ouch!  Following that line of thought a ’score draw’ goal bet wouldn’t be good either.

A 25/1 goal spread bet

Goal betting and the FIFA World Cup…. goal bet tips

World Cup betting

A number of our readers are interested in goal betting. We’ve written about goal betting in various forms before, including correct score goal betting and over goals betting. This post takes a quick look at some World Cup goal betting tips.

With 16 days until the World Cup with lots of attacking football on the cards goal betting is back on the agenda. Lets look at an interesting England goal bet. Check out England’s recent form against Mexico. Three goals in total. In fact since 2007 England have been scoring quite a few goals. Possibly due to the opposition not being up to scratch. A quick look at England’s friendlies over the last couple of years shows the sort of teams England scores most goals against. Before Mexico England beat Egypt 3-1 against.

World Cup goal betting tips

A reliable corner handicap bet for the new Premiership football season

If someone asked you which team do you think won the most corners in the latest Premiership football season? Which team would you think of, Chelsea, or Man United possibly. No, it was Arsenal. Arsenal won the most corners in 85% of their games. Strip out all the opponents with similar attacking ability like Man United, Chelsea and Man City, and you have a great trend for corner football bets.

Here’s a statistic you can’t ignore…. asian handicap betting can be a great choice for an Arsenal corner handicap bet.

Taking a -1 corner Handicap bet on Arsenal would have produced a winner in 17 out of 19 of their home games. That’s a trend not to ignore. The minus 1 handicap means that Arsenal must win at least one more corner than their opponents. In total Arsenal won the most corners in 85% of their games.

So, Arsenal for corner bets. For the best results consider -1 corner handicap bets when they play at home.

Up the ante, antepost football odds for being your own bookmaker on Betfair

Odds for the 2011 Premiership title are up on Betfair already. Before we start dive in to the subject of football antepost odds on Betfair first lets look at what this post will be about. For those who are unsure what antepost odds mean or for those who need a refresher we’ll look at the definition. As the post title suggests antepost odds can be helpful for people who want to be there own bookmaker. In this post we describe how ante post football betting on Betfair can be used by budding bookmakers. There is something for everyone here. Professional gamblers may pick up a tip or two and the novice will get one step closer to making a regular income on Betfair.

In a recent post discussing what steps to take to become your own bookmaker we discussed the theory of how to be your own bookmaker. One of the difficulties with making this work in practice is balancing the book. Real bookmakers balance the sports book in order to guarantee themselves a profit. On individual events they may either be in profit or in a loss. In a sense they are taking a gamble. But the overall result of all the events they price should secure a profit. Anyone wanting to be their own bookmaker needs to have the same goal.

The amateur bookmaker’s sports book will concentrate on much fewer sports and events than the traditional type. Although, this is only limited by your bank balance. In the previous post, which you can link to below, we looked a some simple steps to making a sports book. Here we concentrate on using antepost odds to kick start a sports book.

What are ante post odds? The term originated in the horse racing industry. Bookies would price odds before the horse got to the post for ‘the off’. Now being used in more general terms, ante post odds can be found on various sports, including football. After the Premier League title fight ends bookmakers post their ante post odds for next season.

Football ante post odds on Betfair

How to use the Racing Post to help select horses for betting on Betfair

Our friends at Betting School.com have just introduced a new selection system. The private members have been using it for a while. All horse racing Betfair betting systems rely on a trust worthy selection system. Various techniques should be used to increase a betting system’s return on investment. Here’s an example of a market information technique that uses The Racing Post forecast price to do just that.

The concept is simple. Each race is viewed on a daily basis. Starting at The Racing Post website. The Racing Post have a number of seasoned experts in the racing industry. These experts combine their knowledge to produce a Racing Post forecast price for each horse.

This selection technique hunts for a horse who has significantly shorter odds in the Racing Post forecast compared to the best odds offered by the bookmakers. As always nothing can be this simple. We’ll hand you over to Ricky Taylor at Betting School.com in the video below. It provides examples of how to use this system to increase the strike rate of a Betfair betting system.

How to use the Racing Post forecast for betting on Betfair

5 Steps to becoming a bookmaker

The Let’s Compare Bets blog has had a few requests recently about about how to become a bookmaker. At the Let’s Compare Bets main website we have written about pricing odds. It’s one thing to know some basics about pricing odds and but to become a bookmaker there are some key tips to use. This post looks at the 5 steps to becoming a bookmaker and has taken some snippets found on the price your own odds page at the main site. The price your own odds page examines how bookmakers aspire to have their cake and eat it. You’ll see what I mean.

5 Steps to becoming a bookmaker

Five benefits of Betdaq compared to Betfair

Writing about betting exchanges is so easy. There’s so much to talk about. Merging stock market principles of supply and demand with sports betting has been a master stroke…. a innovative idea that has added another dimension to sports betting. Here we are going to continue our ‘battle of the betting exchanges’ series. In the previous posts “Betfair.com or Betdaq.com which is better?” and “Who has the best odds, Betfair or Betdaq?” we compared the two most used betting exchanges available.

After reading those posts again this week they just seem to be a little biased towards Betfair. The goal of Let’s Compare Bets is to compare betting in an unbiased way so it’s time for an update. First we’ll look at 5 ways that Betfair is better than Betdaq. To keep the argument balanced we’ll look at 5 ways that Betdaq is better than Betfair. Can’t say fairer than that now can we.

Compare Betdaq's benefits to Betfair

The Betfair story…. a technology company that revolutionised online sports betting

Niall O’Conner over at bettingmarket.com has written an informative article about the rise of the betting exchange. Written using Betfair the worlds largest betting exchange as an example. It describes how the betting exchanges have taken the betting industry by storm. Traditional bookmakers originally took offense to the idea that the public can bet that something won’t happen. There have been scandals surrounding abnormal betting patterns and the ease with which the system can be abused. Viz, it’s easier to ensure that a horse won’t win a race than it is for it to win the race.

Race fixing is an obvious concern but not without an agenda. Niall argues that the bookmakers are bashing Betfair because they are fearful of the competition. Competition which is essentially stomping all over a market which has been cornered by the big names of traditional sports bookmaking. Let’s face it corruption in horse racing is not a new phenomenon. Bookmakers have never been concerned about this before, well, not so publicly. Amongst other things there have been a number of complaints by bookmakers pertaining to Betfair’s advertising campaigns that highlighted the fact the bookmakers operate with fat margins. The fatter the margin the less money paid to punters. So traditional bookmakers weren’t happy. Others in opposition to the betting exchange includes the British Horse racing Board chairman Martin Broughton and various horse racing authorities. The Japanese Horse Racing Authority released a statement…

“Our position on betting exchanges has been and remains, quite clear. We strongly believe that it destroys the integrity of our sports and will ruin thoroughbred racing. Japanese racing is televised in Australia from time to time but they are not intended to be used for the purpose of betting exchanges. Therefore, we respectfully request that Betfair Pty Ltd refrain from using our race events for betting exchanges. I trust you understand our position and I thank you for your cooperation.”

But these concerns have not stopped the growth of the popular betting exchanges. Betfair has now reached over 1 million users and their profits are still growing. Whilst the betting exchange has some great selling points not all betting exchanges have been a great success. There have been many failures and none of Betfair’s peers can rival it’s success. Said peers include Livebetting, Betdaq, Betsson, Tradesports and Matchbook catering to the USA. Operators like Betsson have blurred the lines dividing the betting exchange model and traditional fixed odds bookmakers. The website offers normal sports betting and an option to use a betting exchange thus mixing the two types of betting. The others all offer a betting exchange only.

Betfair’s competition all suffer from the same problem, which revolves around the fact that there is not sufficient liquidity in their markets for all bets to be matched quickly. Betfair’s success can be attributed to first mover advantage. They where the first company to develop the best technology and corner the market. A higher number of users has really helped them create a thriving market for members to back and lay a wide range and many aspects of sporting events.

For users, the only potential problems they may have with Betfair is that large bets will not get fully matched by other members. Whereas traditional bookmakers will cater for the ‘high roller’. A slight concern is the commission that Betfair charges. Due to their dominance of the betting exchange market they have no need to compete with other exchanges for commission rates. One positive outcome of this is that Betfair’s competitors do compete for business by offering lower commission rates.

Let’s look at the reasons why the betting exchange has become so popular. This following peace has been taken from “Trading without Dark Pools – The story of how Betfair and the betting exchanges revolutionised the betting market” (Niall O’Connor 2009 All Rights Reserved).
What are the benefits of using Betfair