Goal betting is a betting market which really spices up football betting. As always you can bet on almost anything related to goals in a football match. Correct score betting is a type of goal betting worth learning about. Correct score bets give some long odds. Cast your minds back to 2003. In the Champions League Chelsea hosted a game at home with Besiktas. As you might expect the British team playing at home was the favourite. Favourites always have short odds…. who wants to take a punt on that, right?
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Chelsea ended up losing to the surprise of most. They lost by two goals to nil at home. At the time the odds available on this outcome included odds of colossal proportions…. 109/1. Of course, in anyone’s book this a long shot. Or is it?
Lets divide correct score bettors into two groups. The geeks, otherwise known as the number crunchers and the punters, a.k.a., bright, and often successful people who just like a flutter ( ok, ok, I’ve modeled this on myself :). The first uses numbers and mathematics to calculate correct score bets, the next relies on ‘gut feeling’. In the long run the first wins over the long term and the second will probably lose. But, who has more fun? I, the author of this post, would probably add myself to the second group. I’d like to think I am successful and relatively bright, and sometimes my bets pay out big time, but over the long term who knows! It’s the massive pay outs of correct score betting on goals which leads me to propose that I have more fun than the geeks. Correct score betting on goals certainly is entertaining. Whether you are a geek or a punter doesn’t matter: this post acts as a guide to correct score betting with tones of ‘fun betting” and splashes of geekness. Both aspects of correct score betting have been proven to produce results.
Before we start crunching numbers (zzzzzzzzzzz) lets look at the fun way to select correct score goal bets. To take just a fell winners now and again can be very rewarding. The odds are big. So the winners won’t be plentiful, but, the pay out from the few winners will be.
Using past match statistics can be an invaluable way to get the information you need for correct score betting. This includes historical match averages and head to head scores of opposing teams. Just about half of all premiership football matches end with a goal line off two or under. Betting bookmakers offer over and under 2.5 goal bets based on information like this. The correct score results will look like this; 1 – 0, 0 – 1, 1 -1, 2 – 0, and 2 – 1. Premiership football favours more attacking play and you don’t often get 0 – 0 draws. Whereas, Champions League games produce more 0 – 0 goal results.
Selection is obviously the key to correct score betting. Look to the head to head performances of past matches to help select the correct goal bets to make. How do we select a football match that will produce correct score goal results like those above? First select teams with a good defensive record. This is indicated by teams who have low goal scored averages and low corner averages. To narrow down the list of potential teams, look for those who score less goals and win less corners. Simply, a team who is good in defense but not so good in attack. The eureka moment comes when two teams matching these characteristics are paired. In the Champions League think correct scores of 0 – 0, 1 – 0, 1 – 1, and 0 – 1, especially when two European teams meet. The Premiership correct score bets should include 1 – 1, 1 – 0, and, 0 – 1.
Another popular correct score betting technique is one that is often used with Roulette betting. It uses the numbers, but, don’t worry there’s nothing overly complicated about his one. The punters can breath a sigh of relief! This correct score betting technique uses goal total odds and evens. Using a basic rule of probability can help narrow down which team to select and what goal result to back. The higher the number of matches that result in a goal total of either odds or evens the more likely it is the next game will result in the opposite. For example, choose a team that has produced goal totals of evens on more than 4 of their last appearances in sequence (0 – 0 would be an even result). The correct score bets that are more likely to occur are the ones where the total goals are an odds number; 1 – 0, 0 – 1, 2 – 1, 1 – 2 etc.
To combine these two correct score betting techniques takes longer, and is therefore less fun, but, can produce good results. Lets include one more correct score betting tip to keep you punters happy. If there is a clear favourite to the match select score lines where the favourite wins. Simple. If you’re ready to make correct score bets the next step is to get the best correct score betting odds.
Next…it’s time to crunch some numbers and to get theoretical with it. This aspect of correct score betting is more time consuming and suits those who might want to apply a correct score betting system.
The principle of goal betting with a mathematical approach is to only bet on correct score selections where the odds are in your favour. Lets say the real liklihood of the correct score line is 12%, which represent odds of 7/1. If the bookmaker offers 8/1 or more there is an opportunity. Simply put, that is the main rule to winning at correct score betting.
The real number crunching starts when it comes to selecting which correct score combination offers odds that are in the professional gambler’s favour. Being in the punter camp of people, it’s time to gracefully back out of explaining the complexities of correct score betting using statistical distribution. Instead follow the previous link to our parent website for a guide to statistics and correct score betting or check out other facts and opinion about goal betting below.
That’s it. Simple. Feel free to subscribe to more correct score betting posts via email or RSS (which an RSS reader is required for). Where you can get posts about the Let’s Compare Bets correct score betting experiment.