The Professor goes a bit nutty, again! This post is an update on an experiment on football betting on goals. It involves correct score betting and betting on total goals. The experiment is to develop a football betting system that works.

In the last two weeks the wittily named betting monkey, aka ‘The Professor’, has made some almighty blunders running the Lets Compare Bets goal betting experiment. Every cloud does have a silver lining, because from these mistakes it has taught us some hard lessons. Hard because ‘The Professor’ is using his own money. The excitement of seeing theory put into practice, making a healthy return on investment, was crumpled with some large losses. These loses did not rear their ugly heads due to fundamental problems with the correct score betting system but more to do with ‘The Professor’ being a numpty. Let’s explain.

The results so far….

Starting capital £50.
Strike rate of 87% (that’s the proportion of bets won out of the total)
Return on investment of 29%. This is the profit as a proportion of the starting betting bank.
79 winning bets
12 losing bets

What effect does boredom and drink have on running a betting system? The answer is poor decision making, getting distracted and loosing money. What can be taken from this is that ‘The Professor’ isn’t has clever as he makes out. Being just as susceptible to emotions as the next guy, mistakes where made. After watching a few games and making a series of successful bets the professor deviated from the rules. Which has been put down to boredom. Or was it amount of wine that had been consumed beforehand.

Simply The Professor forgot to follow the rules.

What are the rules of the big football correct score betting experiment?

Rule number 1. Don’t talk about the correct score betting experiment.
Rule number 2. don’t talk about…. sorry film fans, it just seemed to fit (anyone who’s seem Fight Club will understand). In fact Let’s Comapre Bets would love people to talk about this goal betting experiment in forums, blogs, and social sites. It’s only an experiment. Football goal betting tips are given out now and again for people who are joining in. To subscribe go to the top right and click the subscribe button.

Seriously now,

Rule number 1. Is to follow the rules. Be disciplined.
Rule number 2. Forget your emotions. For any betting system to be successful emotions should be forgotten. That’s no boredom of repeating the same process over and over or sadness if a bet losses. One of the worst is regret that a bet wasn’t placed early enough and subsequently the the opportunity was lost.

Simple as that. So what did the professor get wrong?

The Professor had a foray into the correct score trading market and made a successful swing trade. The game was energised and it seemed as though multiple goals would be scored. After one goal, The Professor backed a correct score line of something like 2 – 2. Inevitably another goal was scored which meant that the chance of getting the correct score increased. As such the odds decreased or swung in a profitable direction. The position was cashed out for a nice profit.

The mistake was trying to repeat the process. The Professor forgot the rules and got distracted. The second attempt didn’t go as well, and resulted in a loss.

This loss caused annoyance, that’s right emotions, which resulted in another poor decision which gave another loss. So it’s not back to the drawing board but back to the rules. Always follow the rules.

The rules are quite simple the difficult bit with a betting system is to be disciplined, follow the rules, and never get emotional. A video of the results will be shown in another post. It’s not been recorded yet, but,it will show the betting profit and loss pages from The Professor’s Betfair account. For more goal betting posts from Let’s Compare Bets sign up to our posts (top right).

Followers of the correct score betting experiment can get the rules of this goal betting systems here.

The rules of the correct score betting experiment. Subscribe to Let’s Compare Bets to get more goal betting system updates and football betting tips (the links are top left).

1) A Betfair account is a must. The best place to bet that something is not going to happen (lay betting) is Betfair. For those unsure of this idea see the Let’s Compare Bets Betfair FAQ.

2) Place bets only in the correct score or total goal betting markets. Lay the 0 – 0 goal line in the correct score market or lay 7 or more goals in the total goals market.

3) Choose football games that produce high confidence lay betting opportunities. This is the selection system.

Team ‘match ups’ need to be chosen carefully. Using head to head statistics it is possible to select high probability games for lay bets.

How to select games for 0 – 0 goal line lay bets.

A team showing attacking characteristics matched against a team showing weak defensive characteristics is an obvious choice. Two teams with attacking qualities are a good match up. If both teams have weak defensive characteristics that is also a good choice.

For correct score lay bets avoid teams which both have weak attacking characteristics.

To help with selecting the right games get bookies to give you a helping hand. Go to the over 2.5 goals market and see if the odds are lower than evens. If the odds are under evens there is a good chance that goals will be scored.

How to select games for 7 or more goal lay bets.

Look at matches where both teams that that have strong defensive qualities or both teams have poor attacking characteristics.

What data should be used to select the best football goal bets?

Attacking qualities include high numbers of goals scored, corners won and a high percentage of ball possession.

Teams with weak defensive characteristics include high goals conceded, high corners conceded, and low ball possession figures.

How to get free information for this goal betting system.

Websites like h2hstats.com and scibet.com are good for goal betting stats. Soccerstats.com is also good for all kinds of football betting data.

After selecting a game it’s a good idea to check websites like bettinginf.com for injury news. If first team strikers or the captain is injured normally it’s a bad thing and the selection should be considered again. On the other side of the coin, it’s a good thing if there is a key defender injured (for 0 – 0 scoreline lay bets not for total goal markets).

3) Remember keep it simple, then repeat, repeat, repeat. By repeating what works the betting bank will build steadily.

4) Use good money management and loss reduction techniques. The prospect of a loosing bet will rear it’s ugly head every now and again.

Betfair has introduced a cash out button, which allows members to ‘cash out’ a bet at any time. Perhaps after watching the game or follow live updates online it looks as though no goals will be scored the cash out button should be considered. What it does is to make smaller opposing bets across all the other possible bets in the market to reduce a loosing bet. The Cash Out button is very useful. It appears once the bet goes in play, in the screens accessible after clicking the game in the list of market in the left hand column of the Betfair website.

Optional. Go in play for better results. By making bets in play it’s possible to wait for the odds to shorten (the shorter the odds the less money that needs to risked on the lay bet). By waiting for up to 20 minutes for placing a 0 – 0 goal line lay bet the odds can shorten massively. If a goal is scored within the first 25 minutes or so the odds for a 7 or more goal lay bet will also reduce significantly.

Select a good loss recover system. For example, take any loss and divide it by 5. Make that figure the new stake until the loss is recovered. Then return to the original staking amount.

5) Use advanced techniques using statistics to assess if the odds available offer value. As part of our a free mini series on value football betting Let’s Compare Bets are offering readers a goal betting calculator. The goal betting calculator enables people to compare betting odds to uncover hidden value. The mini series explains all. The sign up form is to the top right of this page (name and email address required).