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A Betfair bet trading strategy using goal betting

By on July 26, 2011 in Exchange trading, Football betting

With the new Premiership football season fast approaching it’s time to investigate some interesting methods for trading football matches on Betfair. Basic bet trading on Betfair is simple. It’s a case of back high, lay low, or vice versa, lay low and back high. Simplicity in itself. Those unfamiliar with Betfair and or trading on Betfair might not find it such a piece of cake. Take a look at the Betfair FAQ, and, how to make a Betfair trade, for a better explanation.

Successful goal betting is all about have good information and stats that reveal which games will produce goals and which won’t. Trading goal bets is a good way to profit from this information. As long as the odds move in a predictable way then a trade can be made. The difficult bit is knowing which matches will be football gold (that’s profit in the pocket) and which will be a bore.

The followiing stats can be very useful for selecting which football matches to trade;

Stats for 2 goals or less and 3 goals or more.
Average goals per match.
Time of first goal.
First team to score.
Both teams to score.
Clean sheets.

Using this information is very useful when deciding which games to trade on Betfair. Some traders like to use a strict set of rules when it comes to trading football games. However, something we prefer and as I have noticed on the forums of Bet Trader, many other traders prefer is to adapt rules to specific games.

Trading goal bets on Betfair

A Betfair bet trading strategy using goal bettingunratedEditor2011-09-08 14:01:57With the new Premiership football season fast approaching it’s time to investigate some interesting methods for trading football matches on Betfair. B…
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Carlos Tavez moves back to Brazil, get the goal betting stats for top scoring Englishman

By on July 19, 2011 in Football betting, Football Betting Stats

Carlos Tavez is set to move to the Brazilian football club Corinthians. Much to the disbelief of Man City fans who were relying on Tavez to advance their dreams of chlallening Man United for the Premiership title. Carlos Tavez was one of the favourites in the top goal scoring betting market. With the withdrawal of Tevez Wayne Rooney becomes favourite.

Update.  Tavez hasn’t moved to Brazil but he’s moved away from Man City, so it’s the same difference!

At Let’s Compare Bet’s we have mentioned that Wayne Rooney looks like a good bet in this market. Another goal betting market worth considering is the top scoring Englishman in the premiership this season. The change in odds for Wayne Rooney has revealed value in this market.

Wayne Rooney is one of the favourites in the top goal scoring markets. This may have made his odds a little short for top goal scoring Englishman.

Wayne Rooney is favourite and Darren Bent is second favourite. Here are some stats. Wayne Rooney scores an average of 16 goals per season, whereas, Darren Bent scores an average of 17. The stats suggest that Wayne Rooney’s odds are too short and that Darren bent for top scoring Englishman is a better bet.

Frank Lampard and Jermain Defoe both have odds at around 12/1. Frank scored an average of 14.6 goals per season and Jermain scored an average of 10.6. Darren Bent still looks like the best value.

Decide who you think will be top scoring Englishman.

Carlos Tavez moves back to Brazil, get the goal betting stats for top scoring EnglishmanunratedEditor2011-08-02 03:52:34Carlos Tavez is set to move to the Brazilian football club Corinthians. Much to the disbelief of Man City fans who were relying on Tavez to advance th…
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Not so much a finale but a damp squib for the big correct score betting experiment

By on June 13, 2011 in Betting Exchange, Football betting

As footballers get lambasted for partying to hard, being to tired to play international football, and, creating scandals with their infidelities the Let’s Compare Bets Big  correct score betting experiment comes to an end.  It’s the end of the premiership football season.

Following the start of this foray into correct score betting on Betfair , £17 goal betting enthusiasts signed up to Betfair, to follow the experiment.  A  total of 3059 was wagered, which is great to see.  Since the video below was recorded a further 16 people have joined and the total amount bet has increased to £29983.  It is great to see Betfair being used as a place to experiment with betting systems.  The superior odds, and flexibility makes it a no brainer for punters when compared to traditional bookmakers.

What conclusions can be drawn from the correct score betting experiment?

Our researcher, A.K.A, the professor found that the system works relatively well in UK Premiership games.   No so with international games.  This is some what of an understatement.  After a modicum of success The Professor got carried away and proceeded to destroy the betting bank by making two many wild goal bets on European and South American football.  The results could have been much better if he stuck to the Premiership.

The Professor’s results weren’t great but lets hope that 33 people who signed up to Betfair for goal betting followed the rules and had more success.  It’s not all bad news, some of the highlights include the introduction of total goals betting.  Specifically laying the 7 or more goals result.  The discovery of the ‘cash out’ button was also a positive.  It allows bets to be closed out for a profit or a loss before the conclusion of the game.

What went wrong?

The Professor placed too many bets and got carried away.  Betting on Colombian Football and The Copa Libertadores was never going to be a good idea and it resulted in very damaging loses.  Yes The Professor is an idiot!  Although acting like he did has highlighted some important aspects to using a correct score betting system or any betting system for that matter.   Uppermost of which is taking the psychology of the person following the system into account.  The Professor got carried away and ended up gambling by making some ridiculous bets.

correct score betting lessons

Not so much a finale but a damp squib for the big correct score betting experimentunratedEditor2011-06-12 10:43:47As footballers get lambasted for partying to hard, being to tired to play international football, and, creating scandals with their infidelities the L…
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Tottenham Vs Blackpool, stand out stats for the correct score betting system

By on February 21, 2011 in Football betting, Football Betting Stats

The big correct score betting experiment takes us to Bloomfield Road for the Blackpool versus Tottenham. Our very own betting professor, A.K.A ‘The Professor’, has signaled some high confidence goal bets for Tuesday night’s game (Tue 22nd Feb, 8p). The Professor sniffs out all the best bets for the Let’s Compare Bets big correct score betting experiment. This post looks at two recommendations, one for a correct score bet, and one for a total goals bet. Get more goal betting tips by subscribing (top left) feel free to spread the word.

It’s all in the stats

Blackpool had, until recently, a 100% trend of producing three or more goals per game when they played at home. That’s some exciting football and it happened in every game. Eventually every 100% trend comes to an end and Blackpool’s did recently, but, they are still getting three or more goals in over 91% of their home games. That’s a trend not to be overlooked. Especially since Tottenham score more than one goal and conceive more than one goal on average per game.

Goal betting tip lay the 0 – 0 score line.

Another bet that suits this game is a lay on 7 or more goals in the total goals market. A technique that has been mentioned in previous editions of the correct score goal betting experiment is to wait for a quick goal during the game before placing a lay 7 or more goals bet. What happens is that the odds shorten significantly, which reduces the exposure to the bet by a country mile. This goal betting technique works best when there is a quick goal during the game. It just so happens that Blackpool have scored their first goal within 28 minutes in 83% of their home games this season. Tottenham are also impressive in this area and score the first goal within 28 minutes in 63% of their away games.

total goals betting tip

Tottenham Vs Blackpool, stand out stats for the correct score betting systemunratedEditor2011-02-21 08:37:53The big correct score betting experiment takes us to Bloomfield Road for the Blackpool versus Tottenham. Our very own betting professor, A.K.A ‘The P…
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7 wining bets from 7 with the big correct score betting experiment

By on February 15, 2011 in Football betting

7 out of 7 winning bets from the weekend’s football goal betting experiment. In fact it’s a correct score betting experiment. The idea is to make lay bets on the 0 – 0 score line and on 7 or more goal in the total goal market. It’s a ‘slowly slowly catch a monkey’ approach…. that’s to say a betting system that aims to make lots of small gains with very few loosing bets. Our researcher, otherwise known as ‘The Professor’, researched the market and came up with 7 tips. The weekend is over and the result? 7 out of 7 winning bets. That’s a great result. But, it’s to be expected. Lots of small winning bets and few loosing ones. To get more goal betting tips subscribe to our posts (home page, top right). To get the low down on the Let’s Compare Bets big correct score betting experiment visit the original post via the link.

correct score betting results

7 wining bets from 7 with the big correct score betting experiment unratedEditor2011-02-15 13:19:107 out of 7 winning bets from the weekend’s football goal betting experiment. In fact it’s a correct score betting experiment. The idea is to make la…
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