Bet like a bookie. Barcelona vs Arsenal Champions League

UEFA Champions League
Tuesday, 323 February, 19:45
Emirate Stadium

One of the characteristics needed to hone your skills as a sports bookmaker is a keen eye for what’s happening in the market as well as the sport.

Arsenal play Barcelona in their first game in the round of 16 after qualifying in the group stage. Arsenal will need to give them all they’ve got to show their commitment to winning the Champions League. Messi had a knee ligament injury at the end of last year and was also diagnosed with kidney stones in December making it likely that he will not be 100% for this match if he plays.

Arsenal have a good chance in this Champions League match

Arsenal have played formations that have proved troublesome for Barcelona’s Neymar, Suarez and Iniesta previously. Arsen Wenger can be stubborn with team formations, but, a surprise performance is a real possibility.

Arsenal odds may be too long and recent market history looks interesting. Furthermore, Arsenal are playing at the Emirates Stadium.

How to use the Betfair exchange to make the most of opportunity

be a bookie on Betfair

Bet like a bookie. Barcelona vs Arsenal Champions LeagueunratedEditor2016-01-29 05:47:37UEFA Champions League
Tuesday, 323 February, 19:45
Emirate Stadium

One of the characteristics needed to hone your skills as a sports bookmaker …

Betting exchangeBet like a bookie. Barcelona vs Arsenal Champions LeagueUEFA Champions League
Tuesday, 323 February, 19:45
Emirate Stadium

One of the characteristics needed to hone your skills as a sports bookmaker …

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How did our Facebook tips perform in 2015? Setting up a sports book on the Barclays Premiership

During 2015 we have made various tips and predictions on our Facebook page. For fun. We performed quite well. For the tips we made you can visit the our Facebook timeline and scroll or search through to get the details. You may think that’s great but how can we profit from these sorts of opinions? Betfair is a great tool to allow normal punters to play bookmaker. This post will explain some techniques for setting up a simple sports book without needing hundreds of thousands of pounds (or currency equivalent).

Barclays Premiership football has seen some big changes in the 2015/16 season including Manchester United and Chelsea not living up to the their fans expectations. A big shock for Chelsea was that Jose Mourinho ended his job at the club but the bigger shock has been their bad performances.

Earlier in the season we predicted that Leicester City was a team to watch. Our tips included both teams to score and win tips. Other things we predicted for the season was that Chelsea was priced as the favourite to win the Premier League at the start of the season. In our opinion the odds did not reflect their true chance of success especially considering the pedigree of Manchester City and an Arsenal who looked like they where turning a corner.

Making a sports book is basically setting out your opinion about which teams are priced at the correct odds and more importantly which teams are not. For instance we predicted Chelsea’s odds would increase and that Arsenal’s odds would Shorten. Who would have known that Leicester City’s odds would shorten so much. Considering Leicester’s form and gaining Claudio Ranieri as manger was a good indication that things where going to change for the club.

Real bookmakers provide odds on many different markets and sports. As a novice booked we just need to pick one market, for instance, the Barclays Premier League outright winner antepost market on Betfair. Next we choose which teams look like they’re due a change of opinion compared to the odds given by the bookmakers at the start of the season. Bookmakers employ intelligent people called odds compilers to maker their sports book and predict the probability of each team winning the league. They then add in their profit margins. There are so many factors that effect the rise and fall in the fortunes of Premier League teams that the odds of each team will eventually move during the season either as they become more likely or less likely to win. Certain things can really shake things up, for instance, Chelsea loosing it’s manager or Leicester city gaining an experienced manager. Alternatively it could be a key player being injured or a key signing. Either way these events cause a shift in the odds of the other contenders for the top spot.

Odds compilers are clever but they can not see the future, which allows punters on Betfair to have a bit of fun and potentially do nicely at making a bit of extra cash for themselves.

How to set up a small sports book

How did our Facebook tips perform in 2015? Setting up a sports book on the Barclays PremiershipunratedEditor2016-01-18 09:10:21During 2015 we have made various tips and predictions on our Facebook page. For fun. We performed quite well. For the tips we made you can visit th…
Betting exchangeHow did our Facebook tips perform in 2015? Setting up a sports book on the Barclays PremiershipDuring 2015 we have made various tips and predictions on our Facebook page. For fun. We performed quite well. For the tips we made you can visit th…
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Focus on: Premier League goal statistics

If you bet on the Premier League, you need to keep you finger on the pulse of all the important statistics. Goal statistics are important because they are relevant to so many markets. If you ever bet on markets such as Both Teams to Score, Total Goals, Win to Nil market and Clean Sheets, you need to know which teams are performing well in which market, and which teams to avoid.

To help along we have compiled a quick list of some important statistics that can be applied to you Premier League betting strategy over the course of the next week:
Arsenal have scored two or more goals in exactly half of their games this season

Focus on: Premier League goal statisticsunratedNeil2015-12-06 14:00:51If you bet on the Premier League, you need to keep you finger on the pulse of all the important statistics. Goal statistics are important because they…
Football bettingFocus on: Premier League goal statisticsIf you bet on the Premier League, you need to keep you finger on the pulse of all the important statistics. Goal statistics are important because they…
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Focus on: Under 2.5 Goals betting tips and strategies

In previous articles we have looked at the popular Over2.5 Goals market. This has become one of the most popular markets because of the ease with which the average punter can research the statistics. In contrast, the Under 2.5 Goals market is far less popular and often gets overlooked.

There are a couple of good reasons for this; firstly, football is all about goals and punters are naturally drawn to the markets where a high goal count is expected. Secondly, under 2.5 goal tallies are generally less common and therefore get far less attention from the tipsters.

The good news is that bookmakers focus their attention on the same markets as the punters, so by exploring the less popular markets, you can sometime find much better value.

Under 2.5 goals – which teams are hot right now?

To find out first candidate in the Under 2.5 Goals market, we will take a look at the Spanish second division. If we look at the statistics for this market, we discover that SD Huesca are a prime contender for an Under 2.5 Goals bet.
goal tip

Focus on: Under 2.5 Goals betting tips and strategiesunratedNeil2015-12-06 14:22:53In previous articles we have looked at the popular Over2.5 Goals market. This has become one of the most popular markets because of the ease with whic…
Football bettingFocus on: Under 2.5 Goals betting tips and strategiesIn previous articles we have looked at the popular Over2.5 Goals market. This has become one of the most popular markets because of the ease with whic…
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Over 2.5 Goals: Who’s Hot in the European Leagues?

The Over 2.5 Goals market is the perfect market for fans of football statistics, and if you are going to bet on a regular basis, you should learn to love those stats!

With over a quarter of the season gone in most European leagues, there is now a good sample size of games available for analysis. This makes it much easier to spot reliable trends in all our favourite markets.

So who are the current top performers in the Over 2.5 Goals market? If we take a look at the English leagues and the most popular tiers of the top European and USA leagues, we get the following results.

When playing at home

If we look at teams with a strike rate of 85% or above, we get a list of 11 teams that excel in this category:

  • Bayern Munich (Bundesliga) – 100%
  • Borussia Dortmund (Bundesliga) – 100%
  • Sevilla (La Liga) – 100%
  • Colombus Crew SC (MLS Eastern) – 88.9%
  • Chesterfield (League One) – 87.5%
  • York City (League two) – 87.5%
  • Cagliari (Serie B) – 85.7%
  • Forfar Athletic (Scottish League One) – 85.7%
  • Freiburg (2. Bundesliga) – 85.7%
  • Rangers (Scottish Championship) – 85.7%
  • PEC Zwolle (Eredivisie) – 85.7%

European league trends

Over 2.5 Goals: Who’s Hot in the European Leagues?unratedNeil2016-01-18 08:12:06The Over 2.5 Goals market is the perfect market for fans of football statistics, and if you are going to bet on a regular basis, you should learn to l…
Football betting,Sports Fixed Odds BettingOver 2.5 Goals: Who’s Hot in the European Leagues?The Over 2.5 Goals market is the perfect market for fans of football statistics, and if you are going to bet on a regular basis, you should learn to l…
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